Red Sox

“There are situations where you’d have to say the qualifying offer shouldn’t be an impediment or deterrent, and other times where it could be.”

No one knows how different the Red Sox will look by the time the Winter Meetings end on Thursday. But we do have some insight as to how new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow wants to improve his roster before that day comes.

According to The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, the Red Sox will actively pursue free agent starters. Speier said that they are looking to add “at least one starter, possibly two,” but Breslow reportedly would prefer signing someone who doesn’t have this one specific burden.

“Sources believe the team has a strong preference to avoid signing a pitcher attached to a qualifying offer,” Speier wrote. “That places three pitchers as prominent offseason targets: Japanese righthander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, lefthander Jordan Montgomery, and Japanese lefty Shōta Imanaga.”

Those three starters aren’t the only ones without a qualifying offer. They could pursue Marcus Stroman, Seth Lugo or even former Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez without having to forfeit a draft pick.

Seven MLB players received qualifying offers, but southpaw Blake Snell is the only remaining starter (excluding Shohei Ohtani, who will not pitch in 2024) within that group. Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray both received qualifying offers, but they have already signed with other teams.

But that doesn’t mean that having a qualifying offer is a complete dealbreaker to the Red Sox. If they really like Snell or anyone else who has one, they might not let it block them from signing that player.

“The qualifying offer is a variable when you consider options,” Breslow said, per Speier. “There are situations where you’d have to say the qualifying offer shouldn’t be an impediment or deterrent, and other times where it could be.”

Free agency isn’t the only way the Red Sox can acquire rotation arms. They could make a trade for an elite starter, plenty of whom are reportedly being shopped by their teams. But most of the starters rumored to be available, such as Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow, Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes and Cleveland’s Shane Bieber, will all be free agents at the end of this coming season. Unless the Red Sox find a way to extend that player, it doesn’t appear likely they’ll make a move.

“It’s hard to imagine the Sox channeling tradeable prospects into a pitcher with one year of control, only to have to scramble to build the staff again,” Speier said. “The Sox seem more inclined to dip more aggressively into their prospect pool to get a pitcher who would be part of the rotation for multiple seasons.”

There are several reportedly available starters who still have multiple years of team control that the Red Sox could be interested in. They could swing a deal with the Chicago White Sox for the highly-coveted Dylan Cease, or they could convince the Seattle Mariners to part with Logan Gilbert.

But these types of deals are easier said than done. Even getting just one of these players can be a significant hit to that team’s farm system, a risk that Breslow understands and accepts.

“Control is very important. It’s very valuable. It also comes at a premium,” Breslow said. “But as we think about building not just for ‘24 but beyond, control comes into play. We have to be willing to recognize that often it takes giving up real talent in order to get control back, especially controllable starting pitching.”