Entering Week 17, the Panthers (who are their first-round pick to the Bears) are two games ahead of the Patriots for the No. 1 overall pick. If Carolina loses to a Trevor Lawrence-less Jacksonville on Sunday, New England won’t be able to catch up to it.

If the Panthers are able to pull off the upset though and the Patriots lose as double-digit underdogs to the Bills, they’ll still need some help to possibly pass them in the draft order at season’s end. The Patriots currently hold a slight edge over the Panthers for the first tiebreaker, holding a lesser strength of schedule by just .004 points (Patroits’ strength of schedule is at .518 while the Panthers’ is at .522).

The Patriots can gain some separation in the strength of schedule tiebreaker with the Panthers in Week 17 by getting wins from the Lions over the Cowboys, the Falcons over the Bears, the Buccaneers over the Saints, the Colts over the Raiders, the 49ers over the Commanders, the Cardinals over the Eagles, the Rams over the Giants, the Ravens over the Dolphins, the Seahawks over the Steelers, and the Bengals over the Chiefs.

If most of those results were to happen (six of the 10 teams the Patriots need to win in this scenario are favored to win), the Patriots would likely pass the Panthers in the draft order if New England loses out and Carolina wins out.

However, that doesn’t mean that the Patriots would receive the No. 1 overall pick. The Cardinals are still stuck at three wins, so the Patriots would need to either lose out and have the Cardinals win one more or lose one game while the Cardinals win out.

If they’re hoping to pass the Cardinals in the draft order, the good news for the Patriots is that they hold a significant advantage in the tiebreaker. Arizona’s strength of schedule is at .562 entering Week 17, making it highly unlikely it’ll be able to match New England’s .518 strength of schedule before season’s end. The bad news for the Patriots, though, is that the Cardinals face the 11-4 Eagles on Sunday and the surging Rams, who are looking for a playoff spot, next week.

The other team in front of the Patriots in the draft order is the Commanders. As both teams have four wins, New England doesn’t need Washington to win any extra games if it loses out.

The Commanders have a slight edge over the Patriots in the strength of schedule tiebreaker, though. Entering Week 17, Washington’s strength of schedule is just .002 points worse than New England’s at .516. Because the Patriots and Commanders have many common opponents this season, there aren’t as many games this weekend that could impact a change in the strength of schedule.

In the likely event that the Commanders don’t beat the 49ers on Sunday, the Patriots can still pass them in the draft order if they lose themselves and possibly get wins from the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Ravens, Seahawks, Broncos, and Bengals in Week 17.

Of course, the Patriots can still get passed up by a team behind them in the draft order as well. Of the three five-win teams, only the Giants (.512) hold an edge in the strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Patriots, but the Chargers (.523) and Titans (.527) aren’t too far behind them. All three of the five-win teams are underdogs in their Week 17 matchups.

If you’re still with us after all of those scenarios, you can probably glean that the Patriots’ odds of getting the No. 1 overall pick are likely out of reach. ESPN’s FPI only gives them a 0.3 percent chance of earning the top selection, but it does give the Patriots a 94.5 percent chance of landing a top-five pick.

The Patriots can clinch a top-five pick in Week 17 if they lose and two of the Chargers, Giants, and Titans win on Sunday.